Local Economists examine indicators, predict happy future (gasp!) for Augusta Real Estate Market
Lydia Taylor January 2nd, 2008
Those doom-and-gloomers who can’t stop feasting on national media reports about the real estate market collapse probably missed a wonderful article in the Sunday edition of the Augusta Chronicle. Staff writers Tim Rausch, LaTina Emerson and Damon Cline interviewed local experts about the state of the economy in the area, and managed to get them to make some predictions about 2008.
The results will surprise you.
As I’ve said more than once here at Blog HQ, the market is local, and since we didn’t see the ‘bubble’ we won’t see the correction. While the market has slowed from years past, that shouldn’t stop you from exploring the market, especially as a buyer.
However, that’s my take as a real estate professional. Let’s see what the economic experts said:
Mark Thompson - Augusta State University
He believes employment growth will offset any job losses caused by the area’s housing decline, which he categorized as a ‘correction.’ “The evidence I see is that we didn’t have the rapid price appreciation that other metro areas had,” he said. “We didn’t have the huge boom; subsequently, we’re not going to have the huge bust.”
Mark Vitner - Wachovia Bank
“Historically low housing prices in the metro Augusta area will continue to make it an attractive destination for people leaving higher-priced markets and corporations seeking a favorable quality of life for its employees. The moderate cost of living was a large component of ADP [Automatic Data Processing] coming,” Mr. Vitner said, referring to the Fortune 500 company that opened a service center in west Augusta this year.
Doug Woodward - University of South Carolina
“The depreciating dollar also should boost the state’s tourism, notably from Canadians flocking south to take advantage of their strengthened currency.”
Rajeey Dhawan - Georgia State University
His latest statewide forecast posted on the school’s Web site said he expects growth in all Georgia metro areas in 2008.
Roger Tutterow - Mercer University
Though Dr. Tutterow believes “we’re closer to recession than any time in the past,” he is not predicting a recession, either locally or nationally, in 2008. He forecasts tightening in the financial-services industry because of the slumping real estate market. Dr. Tutterow said local home prices are unlikely to rise in 2008. “I think that we’re getting closer to the bottom of the residential real estate correction, but we’re not there yet,” he said.
Jeffrey M. Humphreys - University of Georgia
Dr. Humphreys expects the Augusta-Aiken area will “enjoy faster economic expansion in 2008″ with employment climbing 1.9 percent, or 4,100 jobs. He forecasts strong performance in the area’s service-producing industries, notably health care and private education.
I should point out that all text in italics was taken from the Augusta Chronicle article. Was the article entirely positive about growth in Augusta? No. And certainly not to someone expecting double-digit growth in home prices like they read about in the San Francisco Chronicle for the last 5 years. That’s just not realistic. And that massive real estate boom never happened to that degree in Augusta anyway. So forget about it. Let’s move on.
If it had been within my power, I would have been broadcasting the news with a megaphone via orbiting helicopter. But no, I don’t have a helicopter, much less a megaphone. But there is one thing I do have, which is a website that reaches thousands. So there you go folks. The Augusta Chronicle had it first, and I’m just spreading the news the only way I know how.
I hope you had a Happy New Year, and best wishes for 2008!
From the Sunday, December 30, 2007 edition of the Augusta Chronicle (registration required).
- News
- Comments(5)
Lydia,
It’s nice to hear such positive news from your area. It goes to show that, as you’ve mentioned, real estate is local and that buyers need to go beyond media outlets so that they can determine how the market they plan on buying in is doing.
Great post about your area’s economic health. I’d love to see someone in the mainstream media write or talk about specific markets rather than the “national” mess. Austin is similar to Augusta in terms of economic health, but even the local media doesn’t report much on that.
Lydia,
Glad to read that an other real estate agent says that real estate is local. Too many prospective buyers look at the national or their local market conditions and guess that other areas have the same conditions as their’s.
Another item worth noting is that local real estate markets can actually, have pockets of high “short sales, pre-foreclosures, and foreclosures which can affect an area’s property values to a certain extent.
Yes, agreed all real estate is local Glenn. I’m down here in Orlando and we’re about as close to a busted balloon as they come. I can see the market hitting the bottom this year in Florida. The investors here are snapping up all the foreclosures and by time the market starts to turn around all the great deals will be gone. And guess what, that’s when the media will start saying, “It’s time to buy!”
Glad to hear the Atlanta market is still going solid. Good article.
I keep hearing people say that Austin real estate is going to drop 60% “because of the bubble” which drives me crazy because Austin prices just have not increased that much like they did in places like California. The media really needs to start talking about the local aspect of real estate instead of just saying stuff about how real estate declined x percent nationally.